Today, July 14th, 2026, at 3pm EST, two heavyweight football nations will meet at the Dallas Stadium (AT&T Stadium) in Arlington, Texas for the first semi-final match of the 2026 World Cup: Spain and France.
How France and Spain got to the semi-final
France are the favourites, and they should be. France have 0 losses, 0 draws, and have not needed any extra time this tournament in order to win their games. Led by their captain, Kylian “The General” Mbappe, France emerged as leader from the group of death (Group I with Senegal, Norway, and Iraq) to beat Sweden, Paraguay, and Morocco and reach the semi-finals.
Spain have been less convincing in their tournament run. On paper, Spain’s wins look decent enough, but they were initially blocked by Cape Verde and drew 0-0 in their first game. After that, the paper wins look pretty good with shut-out victories against Saudi Arabia and Uruguay in their Group H games. In the Round of 32, Spain had their first good game against Austria where they looked fluid and in control. However, for their next two games against underperforming sides, Portugal and Belgium, Spain struggled to score a winning goal until they subbed on Mikel Merino.
France strengths
How should I count the ways? I personally think that this is the most mature French team in 10 years. The mentality of this 2026 squad is so strong.
Mentality
This 2026 France team can maintain match momentum even when they’re leading and remain cool despite aggressive challenges. Past France teams tended to be on the pitch for 90 minutes, but they would play intensely for only one-half of the game (think of France’s 2016 Euro performances). As a France fan, I would get nervous if France went up by 2 or 3 goals before the first half. Burned by the loss to a prime Switzerland team in the Euros 2021, when France was up 3-1 and then let in 2 Swiss goals to eventually lose by penalties, I wasn’t sure if the French players’ interest in the game would remain to defend the lead for the second half.
This France squad, with Mbappe as Captain, Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, and Desire Doue or Bradley Barcola leading the attack, have not only comfortably beaten their opponents, but they have coolly maintained their momentum throughout the matches when they’re leading. The Sweden game showed me this — even though France was up 2-0 by the 54th minute of the match, the French team didn’t let up on the attack. Eventually France won by 3-0, but Sweden’s goalkeeper Jacob Widell Zetterström made nine saves and kept the lead from being humiliating.
Even though Olise’s bicycle kick attempt at goal didn’t finish, it was the beginning of many creative plays that France tried to do while they maintained their moment. You could see in the Sweden that there were several attempts that Mbappe made to give Olise a shot on goal. France went from playing against Sweden in a knockout match to playing, toying, with them. This France team can not only
The Paraguay match unlocked another aspect of this France team’s mindset. In that match, against an aggressive Paraguay team, France maintained their cool and didn’t react to unfair ref calls (such as giving Olise a yellow card to a diving Paraguay player) and openly aggressive attacks on French players. I was surprised that players like Adrien Rabiot didn’t lose his temper on the field, but France moved through that game with their tempers in check. Even though Paraguay played a low block for most of the game, France went from having 0 shots on goal in the first half to finding a way through the Paraguayan defense in the second half, making five shots on goal. Again, like the Sweden game, the Paraguayan goalkeeper Orlando Hill made those saves to keep Paraguay in the game, conceding only to Mbappe’s penalty kick at the 70th minute.
France dominated the Morocco game as well, winning 2-0 with 10 shots on target. Like his Swedish and Paraguayan counterparts, the Moroccan goalkeeper Yassine Bounou kept Morocco in the game for a while, saving eight shots, including Mbappe’s penalty kick.
Skills
Everyone already knows the incredible level of talent that this French team has, so I won’t go into it here. I will say that I think this French team has another gear or two left for the really big moments, the pressure moments, that we have not seen yet, and if Spain can be good enough to bring it out of France, we’re in for a treat.
Spain strengths
I’m a France fan, so I will be biased, but I don’t see many strengths for Spain. Yes, they have a talented team but is that enough to beat France? From what I have seen of Spain so far this World Cup, I am underwhelmed. Or maybe the Spanish team have been underwhelming. This is not the same dynamic team that won the Euros in 2024. I think this team is similar to the 2022 World Cup team that couldn’t finish, even with Morata, and got knocked out by Morocco in the round of 16.
People emphasize that Spain has a stronger midfield than France and that they can dominate possession, but so what? What will you do with possession and no finishing? Make crop circles in the midfield and hope that France trips over them?
At some point, the ball must go into the back of the net. Spain cannot finish against teams that are tougher than Austria or Saudi Arabia. They were held to 0-0 by Cape Verde. Their attack has been underwhelming. People keep defending Lamine Yamal, saying that his role is as a chance creator. His current World Cup stats? 1 goal, 0 assists. Where is the proof of this chance creation? Right now, people have strong belief based on the potential of Spain, rather than any actual results and actions that have been shown in the games.
However, you cannot avoid the fact that despite having injuries and their top player underperforming, Spain has still found a way to reach the semi-final. They’re are an undoubtedly talented team who can definitely hurt France if France don’t respect them. But the likelihood of Spain beating France? 30/70.
Desperation against Belgium
While I think France is still playing at 80 or 90%, not yet giving us all that they can actually do, I think the opposite of Spain. In the match against Belgium on July 10th, I think we saw Spain at 100%. Spain was throwing their whole bench at Belgium in order to score a winning goal. I think that if there was a plate of spaghetti on the Spain bench, the manager would have thrown that at Belgium to try and win this game. There are some Spanish fans (who I secretly think are Argentine or English fans who don’t want France in the final) who claim that this was a “convincing” and “easy” win for Spain. I am not sure which game they were watching. You don’t sub on a recovering Nico Williams at the 78th minute because you’re winning comfortably against Belgium. That is a desperate move. And Spain looked desperate and frantic in those last 20 minutes of that Belgium game. Spain barely scraped a win out of an aging Belgium side that is well past its 2018 prime and had two injured starters.
Game prediction
I think France take this game, at least 3-1.
It’s a 70/30 chance for France right now to win it. France has not been tested this tournament so far, and for other teams, the lack of a stress test might be a disadvantage. But if you follow France, especially Mbappe’s France, you will see that France love pressure. Mbappe nearly won the 2022 final by himself in the dying moments of that game. I even have a bit of a conspiracy theory that for that last match against Morocco, I think that Mbappe went off the pitch not just for a potential ankle discomfort, but also because he was a little bored with the game. Morocco sat back all game and didn’t pressure France at all. The worst thing you can do for yourself as France’s opponent is to give them pressure. Pressure allows France to kick themselves into the top gear of their talent, and the scary thing is they have not shown us that France yet in this 2026 World Cup.
France have been calm, cool, and collected in the face of aggressive opponents, unfair calls, and most importantly, their own success with large leads. This is also despite having all of their World Cup games in the afternoon, in the incredible summer heat of the East Coast, while most of Spain and Argentina’s games have been in air-conditioned stadiums or scheduled at night. This is a battle-tested France that has emerged cleanly into the semi-finals with no real equal that I see. I think France can handle a tougher (than Paraguay or Sweden) opponent like Spain, who has been flailing a little bit.
For Spain to win this game, they would have had to level up in the past few days, deal with their lack of finishing, and then make sure that their defense, especially their goalkeeper Unai Simon, have the game of their lives against the attacking force of this French team. It’s a lot to ask of a Spain team that struggled to score consistently and easily.
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